阅后即焚(五)

Noonan: Lessons Conservatives Need to Learn

  • Mr. Mickelson is not alone in thinking paying more than half salary in city, state, county and federal taxes is unjust;
  • (Obama) “He has no talent for or interest in sustained, good-faith negotiations, he has no real sense of alarm about the great issue of the day, America’s debt. He’s a chill presence in a warm-blooded profession.”
  • changing the economic balance between rich and poor — redistribution;
  • Compare to Franklin Roosevelt, Obama has the same seriousness of intent but nothing like the base of support: (FDR) 58% to 30% in 1932, 61% to 36.5% in 1936; (Obama) 53% to 46% in 2008 and 51% to 47% in 2012.

Travis Kalanick: The Transportation Trustbuster

  • Co-founder of Uber, a limo service company (search map in app and call limo nearby, charge more), putting premium on customer satisfaction;
  • facing “cease and desist” from transportation agency, not “beg for forgiveness” approach (they are legal);
  • “there’s been so much corruption and so much cronyism in the taxi industry and so much regulatory capture that if you ask for permission upfront for something that’s already legal, you’ll never get it. There’s no upside to them.”
  • have supporters sent 50,000 emails and 37,000 tweets;
  • Uber Amendments: set floor on the company’s rates — anticapitalist taxi protectionism (put it into populist terms);
  • “My politics are: I’m a trustbuster. Very focused. And yeah, I’m pro-efficiency. I want the most economic activity at the lowest price possible. It’s good for everybody, it’s not red or blue.

世行:城市化须依赖财产税及长期信贷

  • 发展中国家快速人口迁移,基础设施建设融资成为问题;
  • 缺少国内信贷市场,市政债券缺乏透明度;
  • 应协调公共和私人融资缓解财政负担;土地销售和财产税均可发挥杠杆效应;

德意志银行:2013年中国GDP将持续上升

  • 大中华区首席经济学家,马骏;推动经济恢复的三个理由;
  • 社会融资总额比例的增长;利润的恢复(消化产能过剩的过程基本结束);出口的复苏(2013下半年预计同比增长12%;美国上半年解决债务上限问题,欧洲二季度会进入环比正增长);

陈龙:谁来为银行系统再注资?

  • 银行股盈利能力强但估值低 — 市场预期银行有大量不良贷款尚未暴露;
  • “4万亿”过程中的不良贷款从哪来的?
  • GDP考核机制下,各地投资冲动一直非常强烈,但受限于资金、土地和审批;“4万亿”后,闸门全部打开,多年难遇的“机会窗口”,“大干快上”,“弯道超车”;
  • 三个明显的受益者:中央政府(经济恢复,国际声誉);地方政府(财税受益,政绩);银行(竞争重视的也是规模,也有官员晋升的因素);
  • 但银行的扩张动机受三方面限制:倒闭风险(政府的隐性担保);存款不足导致放贷资源不够(作用也不大,央行被动超发,大银行网点优势);政策限制(为反通胀,政府也采用各种手段遏制扩张冲动);

Donald Boudreaux and Mark Perry: The Myth of A Stagnant Middle Class

  • All the gains of the growth have gone to the very top — wrong!
  • average hourly real wage remained unchanged from at least 1964;
  • Problem 1: CPI overestimate inflation and underestimate the quality of product and service — healthcare;
  • Problem 2: fringe benefits, such as health, pension, leave and rest, amount to 31% of total compensation;
  • Problem 3: average wages held down by women and less-skilled workers;
  • some other measures of middle-class living standards: life expectancy (5 years more); falling spending on “basics” (food, automobile, clothing); ability to consume (routine air travel, electronic products), close to that of the rich;

Chris Bray: What a ‘Militia’ Meant in Revolutionary America

  • “Today, we are presented with a false choice in which either the government bans assault weapons or an unfettered individual right makes it possible for a monster to spray bullets into schoolhouses. The forgotten middle ways of our nation’s earlier days, that world of mutuality, excluded more people than it included, and its shortcomings are well known. But it also had real strengths, and the benefits of a strong civil society are lost to us when we expect government to address and solve our every problem.”

Highlights from the EO print Edition.604, Jan 21, 2013

  • housing price greater concern than inflation in 2013;
  • Change overseas investment model, net loss of $26.8 million in 2011;
  • PE & VC investing in pollution-related companies: atmospheric monitoring, fixes for pollution, produce technology that reduces emissions;
  • Luxury brands shifted to 2nd and 3rd tier cities, market in first-tier is becoming full;
  • Oil giants lobby to raise crude oil windfall tax threshold, because of rising costs of mining crude oil; if successful, save more than 50 billion yuan in taxes.

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