阅后即焚(十)

刘利刚:日元贬值为人民币带来机遇

  • 日元贬值降低企业融资成本,增强出口竞争力:自90年代初以来已经量化宽松近20次,经济停滞的痼疾在于扭曲的经济结构与人口老龄化;日本经济依赖贸易程度不大;
  • 日元贬值引发周边货币恐慌性贬值,(受到升值压力的人民币)若升,出口更困难;若干预汇率,导致国内流动性大幅宽松,资产泡沫进一步吹大;
  • 动荡的日元给人民币“区域化”的机会,考虑首先成为亚洲的“锚货币”;

陈昌华:非银行信贷支持地方举债的风险

  • 经济反弹依赖于基建项目投资增长,不仅审批宽松,而且融资渠道多样;
  • 企业融资转向非银行领域是健康发展方向,但是:银行贷款依然在增加;银行销售渠道在非银行信贷快速增长过程中也扮演重要角色(道德风险);
  • 中国应尽早决定地方融资以城投债还是市政债为主;

Economic Observer Issue 606 04-02-2013

  • Yingkou’s real estate bubble: will take six to seven years to unload all supply of properties; severe market risk; because of housing restrictions, developers move from top-tier cities;
  • China Southern’s A380 headache: main battlefield is long-distance international routes; headquarters Guangzhou can’t make much use of this advantage;

How Amazon trained its investors to behave

  • Jeff Bezos, a hedge fund veteran, skeptical of Wall St: putting investment ahead of profitability; emphasis on EPS diverts resources away;
  • very few companies want to come into Amazon’s core businesses and try to compete with them at 1% or 2% margins.
  • trained its shareholders to believe that everything will work out in the end.

Low interest rates force companies to pour cash into pensions

  • companies required to calculate PV of pension liabilities using discount rates — based on corporate bond yields — rates fall liabilities rise;
  • Ford’s pension plans had strong real-world returns, but had to lower its discount rates to 3.84% from 4.6%, creating bigger liabilities — increase of non-cash expense;

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