刘利刚：日元贬值为人民币带来机遇
- 日元贬值降低企业融资成本，增强出口竞争力：自90年代初以来已经量化宽松近20次，经济停滞的痼疾在于扭曲的经济结构与人口老龄化；日本经济依赖贸易程度不大；
- 日元贬值引发周边货币恐慌性贬值，（受到升值压力的人民币）若升，出口更困难；若干预汇率，导致国内流动性大幅宽松，资产泡沫进一步吹大；
- 动荡的日元给人民币“区域化”的机会，考虑首先成为亚洲的“锚货币”；
陈昌华：非银行信贷支持地方举债的风险
- 经济反弹依赖于基建项目投资增长，不仅审批宽松，而且融资渠道多样；
- 企业融资转向非银行领域是健康发展方向，但是：银行贷款依然在增加；银行销售渠道在非银行信贷快速增长过程中也扮演重要角色（道德风险）；
- 中国应尽早决定地方融资以城投债还是市政债为主；
Economic Observer Issue 606 04-02-2013
- Yingkou’s real estate bubble: will take six to seven years to unload all supply of properties; severe market risk; because of housing restrictions, developers move from top-tier cities;
- China Southern’s A380 headache: main battlefield is long-distance international routes; headquarters Guangzhou can’t make much use of this advantage;
How Amazon trained its investors to behave
- Jeff Bezos, a hedge fund veteran, skeptical of Wall St: putting investment ahead of profitability; emphasis on EPS diverts resources away;
- very few companies want to come into Amazon’s core businesses and try to compete with them at 1% or 2% margins.
- trained its shareholders to believe that everything will work out in the end.
Low interest rates force companies to pour cash into pensions
- companies required to calculate PV of pension liabilities using discount rates — based on corporate bond yields — rates fall liabilities rise;
- Ford’s pension plans had strong real-world returns, but had to lower its discount rates to 3.84% from 4.6%, creating bigger liabilities — increase of non-cash expense;
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