阅后即焚(十二)

Daniel Grofine and Ben Miller: who needs Wall Street?

  • shift in how companies raise money: through private transactions (rose by 31%) than through debt and equity offering (fell by 11%);
  • companies don’t have to go through the SEC’s costly and time-consuming registration and reporting requirements;
  • (public markets) liquidity by advertising to a wider public;
  • it could also mean fewer investment opportunities for the general public; private exchange not accessible to those who don’t qualify as accredited investors — 97% of U.S. population.

中金:空气污染根源在市场失灵和政策缺位

  • 库兹涅茨曲线 — 环境污染指标与人均收入水平遵循倒U形的关系:在收入水平较低的时期,污染程度随着收入水平的提高而上升;当人均收入水平增长到了8000美元(1985年价格)左右,污染程度开始随着收入增长而下降;
  • 中国目前人均GDP刚超过5000美元,若按购买力平价计算,已经超过9000美元,接近拐点;

吴谦立:不是一家人,进了一家门

  • 德国财政状况相当稳健,但也不愿意援助希腊等小兄弟们;
  • 自2000年以来,德国单位劳动力成本仅有轻微的涨幅,其他确实直线上升,希腊40%,法国25%;
  • “在欧元大家庭刚成立的最初几年里,德国人继续苦吃苦做,而其他兄弟们,尤其是那些处于欧洲南部的小兄弟们,却只顾享受快乐的生活,生活水平不断上涨,但是工作效率与德国人的差距却进一步拉大。”
  • 欧洲统一市场使德国马克贬值,出口更具竞争力,其他国家货币升值,增加进口;但并没有形成劳动力市场统一,各国生产效率依然存在差异;希腊工厂必须雇佣至少五倍于德国工厂的律师、会计师以对付政府部门的干扰;
  • “欧洲问题之所以比较特别,是因为由于实行统一货币,那些陷入危机的国家无法应用常见的大幅度贬值的耍赖手段,把自己拯救出来。另一方面,各国财政却又是独立预算的,在这个虚拟的家庭里面,亲兄弟明算账,无法像一个真正的国家那样可以容易地实现内部利益转移。”

谢国忠:美元牛市再来

  • 第三次美元牛市:20世纪80年代的第一次牛市是由于Paul Volker为了解决滞胀而推出的高利率政策造成的;20世纪90年代中期的第二次牛市源于 IT革命将投资吸入美国;即将到来的美元牛市,则是因为其他经济体的疲软,而非美国经济的实力;
  • 欧元危机的解决方案:北欧国家进一步通胀来平衡南欧国家的竞争力问题 — 欧洲央行的货币扩张;
  • 过去20年间,强势的日元将日本引向通缩,名义GDP一直在下跌,国债飞速上涨,日元走弱是唯一出路;
  • 第一次美元牛市引发拉丁美洲债务危机,第二次引发亚洲金融危机 — 不是巧合:(美元熊市)热钱流入,造成通胀,逐渐失去竞争力,美元走强,流动性随之转向,债务负担不可逆转;
  • 金砖国家体现了滥发贷款所能导致的全部症状:高债务水平、通胀和强势货币。
  • “像澳元和巴西雷亚尔这样的商品货币,在接下来的美元强势时期将会极度脆弱。前者尤其容易受影响。澳大利亚已经变得十分依赖商品出口收入和外国资本流入。后者培育了一个巨大的房地产泡沫。在资本开始外流后,澳大利亚很可能将会经历一场金融危机。”

Jenkins: Apple’s new normal

  • now the newest thing aren’t hardware or operating system, they are cloud services, which Apple hasn’t been strong at;
  • “The (Ford) Model T couldn’t have been the Model T unless the automobile were on its way to becoming too interesting a product for consumers ever to be satisfied with a single model, a single manufacturer, a single design statement.”
  • same for Apple: “Different customers not only want different things from their smartphones, they want difference for its own sake.”
  • drop in share price has not been the popping of bubble or a collapse of confidence in management, it is easy to arrive at simply as some modest lowering of Apple’s expected sales growth and some modest lowering of its expected profit margin on those sales.

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