阅后即焚(二十)

Volcker: Fed shouldn’t wait too long to unwind stimulus

  • Paul Volcker, came after Janet Yellen saying that she doesn’t see any reason to right now curtail bond-buying programs;
  • Volcker said, low inflation supports current Fed policy; but central bankers must decide how and when to retreat;

Keeping up with the Dow Joneses

  • historically, Dow has not been a bad measure of stock-market performance;
  • some vitally important aspects of the market that Dow and other measures miss: impact of inflation (if adjusted, only be around 12,900 instead of the new high 14,253); but offset by not considering the dividends reinvested (if considered, 16,600);

The real outperformer? Bonds

  • “when equity markets do well, people love to  ignore the risks.” “people need to be more vigilant about the risks.”
  • since Oct 2007, high-grade bonds have delivered 48% total return, annualized gain of 7.6%; “junk” bonds have delivered 63%, annualized gain 9.5%; while Dow’s return, with dividends, has return more than 16%, annualized gain 2.8%;
  • the average coupon on a new corporate bond was about 3%, down from 6% in 2007; the average life is increasing as companies take advantage of low rates by issuing bonds with longer terms —  that make corporate bonds sensitive to increase in interest rates;

Facebook adds to Google battle

  • tough for advertisers to determine the value of a “like” — for online media, how to demonstrate that banner ads can be valuable even if Web surfers don’y click on them;
  • that is a big reason Google does so well — Google is often the last place people go just before they make a decision to buy a product online;
  • Facebook last week’s deal to buy Atlas from Microsoft, a online ad technology company; give Facebook a more expansive view of online ads that users see and sales that occur across the Web;
  • Google owns Doubleclick, which serve more ads than anyone;
  • Facebook partnership with ad-measurement firm Datalogix — view of offline sales impact of its online ads;
  • Facebook other advantage: more specific data, name, age, gender, information on other interests;

No budget for China reform

  • government spending will shoulder more burden of growth; a turnaround from the easy monetary policy; 
  • only timid step to line up public finances behind the objective of raising household income and consumption: spending on healthcare, education and social welfare targeted 9.6% increase in 2012, below the growth rate of the economy, if considering inflation;

 

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