阅后即焚(二十二)

A Yen for yield could rock U.S. REITs

  • yield on the Vanguard REIT exchange-traded fund: 3.2% or 2.7% in yen terms; while the largest Japanese REIT fund, the Shinko U.S.-REIT Open Fund, sports a yield of 17.5%;
  • They distribute not just the dividends their REIT holdings generate, they also base payouts on what can be unrealized capital gains in the REIT shares; So if U.S. REIT shares rise, the Japanese funds pay out all or some of those gains to investors, even though they may not have sold their holdings.
  • The danger is that, if the music stops playing, the Japanese funds could be in a precarious position: Say prices of the U.S. REITs stop rising, and the yen stabilizes. Then the Japanese funds will no longer be able to pay such generous dividends without selling off some of their holdings. This could depress some U.S. REIT shares. And that could provoke more sales in following months as the Japanese funds sought to continue the dividend payouts.

Following the money with Apple’s apps

  • Example of Pandora: quarter sale $16m, $12.7m via mobile services (mostly through Apple);  Apple keeps $3m – not a lot;
  • total amount paid to developers since the July 2008 opening of the App Store was $8 billion;
  • Apple’s cut before paying that amount to developers would amount to around $3.4 billion;
  • While Iphone sales last quarter was $31 billion.

China’s economy is best of a bad bunch

  • First quarter 2013: year-on-year 7.7%;
  • weak global demand is a factor;
  • wasn’t all bad news: consumption contributed 4.3%, more than 2.3% from investments — long-awaited rebalancing towards domestic consumption;
  • considering what’s going on elsewhere, doesn’t look shabby: U.S., lowest job creastion in March since June 2012; Europe, crisis isn’t over;  Japan, embarked on a high-risk course of monetary and fiscal expansion;
  • question now: whether China’s new leaders will move aggressively following the latest GDP data? should not accelerate, “In the global economic beauty pageant, China’s still the least ugly.”

Gold’s glory days come to an end

  • just above $1,360 an ounce;
  • confirmation that Cyprus is considering selling some of its gold reserves to reduce its debt burden has triggered fears other euro-zone countries with larger reserves;
  • Gold’s problem is that it yields no interest, making it inherently difficult to value. That leaves it reliant on sentiment;

洪灏:黄金暴跌预示股市波动性上扬

  • 贵金属的波动大致来自于市场对资金流向的预期;金价上周的大跌反映了市场对黄金极端悲观的情绪;在过去40年里仅在1976年、1983年、1998年及最近出现过5次类似的极端悲观情况;
  • 金价波动率持续上升显示股市波动率即将飙升;
  • 没有货币竞争性贬值的市场似乎在承担货币战争的代价:上海处于风口浪尖,香港在2010年11月美国第二轮量化宽松政策以来一直未能再创新高;但美国和日本的股市却表现出色;

陆庭龙:银行股成果为何难分享

  • 中国的银行股普遍在业绩公布后下跌;
  • 四大内地银行在决策上并不单纯是回报股东投资收益的考虑;

安邦:如何改革中国政府的债务问题?

  • 中国政府债务是否过重,取决于对政府责任的界定;日本债务远比希腊高,但是希腊是外债,日本是内债;
  • 中国体制的特殊性:很容易将债务问题分摊到全社会;
  • 也绕不开对经济发展模式的讨论:若房价真的下跌,地方政府债务首先吃不消;土地抵押 – 从银行借贷 – 房价上涨 – 通过土地财政予以覆盖;2009至2012年,只要房价稍微有下降的意味,个地方政府便出台政策救市;

刘利刚:中国如何面对日本新一轮量化宽松?

  • 日本对美元的汇率可能在今年年底达到110-120的水平;
  • 中国贸易竞争力会出现下降;
  • 汇率政策需要作出变化:不是简单跟随美元,而是钉住一揽子货币(应为6.65而非现在的6.20);
  • 加快推进以利率市场化为核心的金融改革;(短期)做到境内外资本双向流动,不能让资本账户开放改革成为新一轮资本流入的起点。

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