Stalled: Brazilian economy is on the verge of vigorous growth

• disappointing numbers: 0.2% instead of 0.4% second term growth, 0.6% instead of 1.2% expansion due to tax cut.
• payroll taxes cut in electricity tariffs does not work well: government’s high-handed approach and hostile attitude towards the private sector.
• financial services, hit by higher defaults, fewer loans, tighter profit margins.
• good news: household consumption still growing.

Life and death struggle: Chinese anti-corruption campaigns again

• keep strict controls on microblogs in cases of those “smear” on the country, while often yield to public taste for blood in cases of local corruptions.

Free exchange: model effect of climate change on economic activity

• restrictions on movement increase welfare costs. beneficial to northern section of the globe due to increase in agricultural growth and trades.
• Prof Kahn (UCLA): productivity of rich places often has little to do with unique geographical advantages.
• carbon taxes raise the relative income of innovative cities that rely more on ideas.
• worries about market failures: areas that lose values may become magnets for poor families, may set the stage for humanitarian disaster.

Survival of the biggest: digital giants become too powerful for consumers’ good

• winner-take-almost-all;
• get consumers hooked on their own platforms;
• habit of gobbling up promising firms before they become a threat.

Not what it used to be: declining value of American universities

• in 1962 one cent of every dollar spent went on higher education and now the figure has tripled, but additional value has not been created to match this extra spending;
• graduates earned no more in 2007 than they did in 1979;
• young graduates facing decline in earnings and a lot more debt.

The Obama doctrine: to avoid costly entanglement in his second term

• “come home and rebuild America”: fix failing schools, potholed roads, snail-like internet networks, or a broken immigrant system;
• present but not deeply involved;
• compared with the 1990s America looks far lonelier: EU cannot offer significant help, Russia intensely suspicious, and China is a distilled essence of self-interest.

The dust settles: hints of reform from China’s new leaders

• from “demographic dividend” to “reform dividend” to boost development;
• state-owned monopolies, the biggest one? Li did not say whether he agreed but did speak the need for reform of household-registration system and land management;
• talked for years, but progress has been sluggish. how many will support him?
• far less swiftly in foreign affairs, not sure who will replace Dai Bingguo.

Alone at the top: Putin initiated high-profile battles against corruption

• anti-corruption purge would make Putin weaker, not stronger;
• after held in power in a decade, the “typical syndrome of an ageing general secretary;”
• now less faith in counsel and more certainty in his own judgment, “think he understands the situation, but in fact it can be quite incomprehensible for him.”

Getting a grip: Gary Gorton’s new book on financial crisis

• systemic financial crises are the result of a broad loss of confidence in bank debt;
• should apply Livingston doctrine to Lehman Brothers in 2008, where the subsequent panics were so devastating;
• it might be true that the Dodd-Frank act does not deal adequately with the liquidity cause of crises, but his alternatives seem impractical.

Day one

• 乔伊斯的短篇小说集《都柏林人》以童年视角开端，就像将要讲述一个人一生的电影，在懵懂纯真的视角中拉开帘幕。The sisters或许应该改名为神父之死，神父詹姆斯福林因瘫痪而告别人世，但原因竟是由于打破了圣杯所以才抑郁而终。笔下的主人公“我”在惶恐和困惑中直面或许是人生中第一次发生在身边的死亡，有太多想不明白的问题，也有太多灰暗本不属于童年。
• 白先勇的《台北人》拉出上海名媛尹雪艳打头阵，大师果然出手不凡，精细而不失犀利的笔触下，聪明伶俐左右逢源的沙龙女主人活脱脱跃然纸上。虽然写的是一个人，但着眼更多的是那一个时代，一段风华，一段过往。新旧时局交界处，有些人更欢喜而有些人更哀愁，但他们都在那一片烟雾缭绕的大观园里熙熙攘攘。人事皆水流花落，但“永远的尹雪艳”不得不令人称赞称奇。

Day two

• 乔伊斯继续沿用童年视角+主题直至结尾才姗姗来迟的手法讲述他眼中旧社会的僵固黑暗与压抑，只不过这一次，“我”和主角有了更为直接和具体的交锋。本文中译名为《偶遇》，这事实上不过是另一种“偶然与必然”的反讽——主人公逃离了原本的噩梦，来到了一个亲切和蔼而自由的新世界，但最后发现这不过是天方夜谭，而以往憎恶的狰狞嘴脸却依然伴其左右。而与“我”同行的另一个小伙伴形成了与自身的强烈对比，说不定他就是“另一个我”呢。这个小故事采用典型的“出走（逃离）—寻找（自我发现）—幻灭”叙事方法，象征意味浓厚。
• 《一把青》读完，就像结尾处端上来的麻婆豆腐一样辛辣十足，却又如师娘那般让人哑口无声。辛辣的地方在于上下二篇发生在朱青身上的强烈对比，从衣着，言语，处事，以及对爱情和亡夫的态度，而这一切又恰恰让我们这些旁观者不知说何是好。师娘的角色就如同乔伊斯笔下的小男孩“我”，扮演着一个冷眼旁观但又不失温情的叙事者角色，和主角一样从头到尾亲历了所有时局的变迁和动荡，仿佛在讲述着作者的思考与困惑——是否会有更好的可能，但更多则是一种随遇而安的妥协与默默接受罢了。

Day three

• 小男孩再度踏上旅途，只不过动机换成了懵懂的爱情，因此文章的色调也清新温暖了许多。读到结尾处，心里会一直期待会有什么惊喜发生，但昏暗破旧毫无生气的Araby集市最终不但彻底打消了男孩的憧憬，还让其心生一丝对自己的厌恶。实际上，与上一篇结尾的“峰回路转”相比，《阿拉比》的特别之处在于这一结局来得是如此平缓而又自然，从出发前的不顺，路上的耽搁，直到最后在摊主面前的退缩，反射的正是小男孩曾经美满的梦想被现实一点一点被蚕食的过程。本文少对话，大量的客观描摹正是作者该用意的外在表现。
• 岁除夜，诉衷肠，醉酒而终。区别于《台北人》中已经出场的前几位女性角色，赖鸣升已然被新时代所抛弃，但却依然活在过去“荣耀与辉煌”的记忆里。这段过去，既是沙场上的折戟沉沙，也是壮年时的酒色时光，粗野直接暴力，自然与“新社会”的文明、规则与节制格格不入（这让人很容易想起《亮剑》中的李云龙）。时间的残酷不是使容颜苍老，而是它会挖空我们的内心而让灵魂无处安放。

Day four

• 窗边女孩伊芙琳，芳龄十九，正值花季，但却在爱尔兰全社会瘫痪的大背景下，过着平淡，沉闷，简单，而毫无生气的日子。结尾并不意外，也在情理之中。虽然全篇只围绕伊芙琳一个人，但读罢脑海中浮现的只是她的一幅侧影（第三人称视角的因素），甚至还微微地向里转去背对着我们。一方面这是由于伊芙琳本身脆弱，封闭，另一方面也是由于作者偏重刻画内心的现代主义表现手法，将外在景物，生活片段，和过去的记忆不显山不露水地穿插在人物的心理活动中。
• 至此，金大班应是白先勇笔下最丰满的人物了，或许这其中还蕴含着作者对其现状淡淡的祝福（而非批判）也说不定。因为与前几位主角在现实和新时代中步入“沉沦”相比，金大班的“金盆洗手”终究有种上岸的意味，是人生的崭新一页，也是真性情的回归（这与结尾处的最后慢舞相吻合）。其实文章并不在于强调金大班个人命运，而是从她世故和看破的视角中讲述了后辈其实也不过是自己的轮回而已，真的没有什么改变。

Day five

• 文章名叫做《赛车之后》，据说是讲述了主人公跟他一帮富贵公子哥儿之间的事情，闹哄哄的，也不知道到底要说啥。
• 有几点特别之处，一是触角终于伸向了更底层的民众，二是孩子形象的出现，三是直刺心肠的情节处理，没有太多温暖和美感可言（大个子王雄的情感世界好像有些畸形，圆头圆脑的丽儿娇惯蛮横，思维简单，舅母事实上也活在丧夫后毫无安全感的生活中，没有太多依靠和寄托）。金门海滩上老兵童真的笑脸让人印象深刻，是个无心的神来之笔，它似乎指向的是某种遥远但又纯净的东西——大宅院落中的老中少身上都缺少它。本文中既没有如赖鸣升那样好歹曾经风云的男性，也没有如尹雪艳金大班一般的女中豪强，大多数人或许就是如此吧，不是人人都是有那么多故事可以说的主角。

Day six

•  
• 延续着上一篇的场景设置——讲述的是另一户宅子里的悲与凉。不过从破屋和新水泥房的比例来看，更多的台北人还是活在“煲鸡汤”与麻将牌的热闹场面里。

Day seven

 

1. If you see something, say something

• Jefferey Immelt (former CEO of GE): “What we lack in the U.S. today is the confidence that is generated by solving on big, hard problem — together.”
• China, getting 90 percent of the potential benefits from its political system; Americans are getting only 50 percent.
• Narthan Gardels (editor of NPQ): like China U.S. should also tighten up in order to self correct. “Democracy is a consumer society driven by the ethos of immediate gratification is not self-correcting either without a dose of the kind of long-term meritocratic institutions that have served China so well.”

2. Ignoring our problems

• Kennan’s telegram: American people knew they had to be vigilant, creative and united, in order to avoid losing the competition with their great rival.
• Charles Vest (former president of MIT): “The United States cannot prosper based on low wages, geographic isolation, or military might. We can prosper only based on brainpower: properly prepared and properly applied brainpower.
• “no Hitler or Pearl Harbor to shock the nation into action, … no Berlin wall to symbolize the threat to America and the world, no Sputnik circling the Earth proclaiming with every cricket-like chirp of its orbiting signal that we are falling behind in a crucial arena of geopolitical competition.”

3. Ignoring our history

• “You win in the turns.”
• five pillars: public education, modernizing infrastructure, immigration, research and development, necessary regulation.
• David Kennedy (Stanford historian): “(regulations) were not about creating more state control and less private ownership. They were about creating the right synergy between the two.” (such as bankruptcy law) set the stage for more risk-taking, thus more incentive to innovate.
• big government?? – Suzanne Mettler (Cornell prof. of government) “the threat to democracy today is not the size of government but rather the hidden form that so much of its growth has taken” – people benefit from it but didn’t feel.
• Jefferey Immelt: “we worship false idols in terms of the power of the free market. The U.S. government has been the catalyst for change for generations.”

Unfortunately, the political debate in America has strayed absurdly from the virtues of our public-private formula. Liberals blame all of America’s problems on Wall Street and big business while advocating a more equal distribution of an ever shrinking economic pie. Conservatives assert that the key to our economic future is simple: close our eyes, click our heels three times, and say “tax cuts,” and the pie will miraculously grow.

4. Up in the air

• Apple – what has vexed Obama is that Apple and many of its high-tech peers are not nearly avid in creating American jobs – “It isn’t just that workers are cheaper abroad.”
• Americans work hard, but there are also structural advantages; merger of globalization and IT revolution makes us either better off or worse off?
• Flat world 1.0 & 2.0, not outsourcing anymore, just source everywhere.
• after recession it takes longer for the jobs to come back to prerecession levels – the nature of work changed radically from one recession to the next.
• “creative creators” “routine creators” “creative servers” “routine servers”

5. Help wanted

• America needs to keep high-skilled manufacturing at home.
• innovation is continuous nowadays not only take place in big-thinking R&D.
• “crowdsourcing” and distribute innovation instead of outsourcing to save money.
• hyper-connected world: innovation takes place from bottom-up instead of top-down.

6. Homework * 2 = the American dream

• The quality of education cannot exceed the quality of its teachers.
• Williams rewarded high-school teachers of its students.
• score difference is associated with parental involvement in the form of reading with their child, talking about what they have done during the day, instead of playing withe their children.

7. Average is over

For decades there has been a struggle between American economy’s desire to increase productivity and the desire to maintain blue-collar and white-collar jobs. We watched as more and more machines, better and better software, and cheaper and cheaper foreign workers replaced American manual laborers and service workers. As noted earlier, we compensated for this loss of blue-collar and white-collar jobs by inflating our housing and retail markets and by expanding local and state governments. But we cannot do that anymore. The only way we can compensate for all those jobs is by inventing new ones or taking old ones and teaching people to do them in new ways that add more value. But that requires more start-ups and better education and more investment in research and development to push out boundaries of science and technology. Today, the Chinese can generate growth just by educating their people enough to do their jobs now done in rich countries. For us to grow, we have to educate people to do jobs that don’t yet exist, which means we have to invent them and train people to do them and at the same time. That is harder, and it is why everyone needs to aspire to be a creative creator or creative server.

8. “This is our due”

• Reagan: first term deficits balllooned, but took back ore than 40 percent during the second term; Bush: put presidency in jeopardy to keep the deficit under control; Clinton: make deficit reduction one of his top priorities, eventually generate budget surplus in the end.
• Bush: tax cuts; easily to finance growing budget deficits by borrowing from other countries.

What Milton Friedman had failed to anticipate was that there would never be a global free market in currencies – that countries like Japan and China would manipulate their currencies to support their export growth models, and their export growth models turned out to support our consumption growth model.

• when funding slows or stops, three unhappy options: raise interest rates triggering economic downturn; printing money triggering inflation; spending cuts and tax increases.

心理学上不知是那条定理常常用来作为吵架时候的argument，其意大概是你越捍卫的往往是你越缺少的，越挂在嘴边，就越是掩饰。这种指摘似乎渐渐成了某种强盗逻辑，并加深了人与人之间的不信任。久而久之，“最好”的表达方式就成了闷声不吭，囫囵吞枣，甚至装疯卖傻；但往往只有闷声不吭是不够的。