一种关注(十五)

拉斯·冯·提尔,阿伦诺夫斯基,大卫·林奇,这一串名单下来,恐怕很难还会有哪一个周末的阵容可以与之媲美。这三个名字,虽说有些以偏概全,但这也足以称得上是当今影坛最具创造力和感官冲击力的导演代表群。还是 Museum of Moving Image 的“cinematic vitality”一词概括得好,直切要害,这三位导演的风格,既不是好莱坞商业片那般圆油,也不是欧洲文艺片那般干涩,更不是我们熟知的东亚电影那般温雅;他们就是以他们的名字命名的那种风格本身。

丹麦人拉斯·冯·提尔的新作《女性瘾者》(2013, 118min, 7.5, 8.0)近期已开始在美国陆续上映,两部中的第一部本周五登陆纽约Landmark Sunshine Cinema。当然了,从名字也不难看出这是一部“十八禁”电影。Museum of Moving Image 本周末开始阿伦诺夫斯基回顾展,为其新作《诺亚方舟》暖场,其中涵盖了《梦之安魂曲》《黑天鹅》《摔角手》等名作,当然值得一提的是阿伦导演的处女作《死亡密码》(1998, 84min, 7.5, 7.6),一部当年仅以16mm做拷贝却又摘得圣丹斯最佳导演的小成本电影。IFC 中心的周末午夜场本周上演大卫·林奇的处女作《橡皮头》(1977, 85min, 7.4, 8.1),有意思的是该片是林奇导演唯一一部入选Criterion Collection的作品,但只能在Hulu上播放,没有dvd版本。

Nymphomaniac     Pi    Eraserhead

本周作为为配角的将是意大利钻石级导演赛尔乔·拉翁内的经典西部片《西部往事》(1968, 175min, 8.7, 8.6),以及同在BAM 玫瑰剧院上演的《阿尔及尔之战》(1966, 121min, 8.2, 8.4),这两部电影均为BAM “The Music of Morricone” 小系列的选片。此外,今年奥斯卡提名作品,来自柬埔寨的电影《残缺影像》(2013, 92min, 7.5, 7.8)也将从本周三开始在Film Forum 上映,本片以独特的玩偶形式讲述了这个东南亚国家的一段苦难史。

Once Upon a Time in the West     The Missing Picture     The Battle of Algiers

附:放映时间

  • Fri: The Battle of Algiers (2:00, 7:00)
  • Fri & Sat: Eraserhead (12:00a)
  • Sat: Once Upon a Time in the West (2:00, 5:30, 9:15); Pi (4:30);
  • Starting Fri: Nymphomaniac: Vol. I (whole day)
  • Starting Wed: The Missing Picture (1:00, 3:15, 5:45, 7:45, 9:45)

Economist Mar 8th 2014

《Kidnapped by the Kremlin》

(Economist连续第三周以乌克兰局势开篇,随着双方进一步对立,杂志的笔锋也更多开始转向对普京的抨击,而对乌克兰西部的建设性意见依然停留在纸面)

Giving in to kidnappers is always dangerous: those who fail to take a stand to start with often face graver trials later on.

  • Kremlin has a duty to protect Russians and Russian-speakers wherever they may be – the logic that Hitler used when he seized parts of Europe in the 1930s.
  • Many powers, not least Britain, France and the United States, have sometimes broken the international law. But Mr Putin has emptied the law of significance, by warping reality to mean whatever he chooses.

《The end of beginning?》

(从文明的角度去解释了一番普京此次动武的缘由,不知道有朝一日中国在面对其周边地区出现类似状况时西方又会有怎样的解读)

There was only one thing missing: enemy

  • Ukrainian forces remain calm: Russia was hoping to follow the scenario of the Georgian war in 2008, when it managed to provoke the Georgians to fire first, it flopped;

Putin is “in another world”

  • Influenced by Ivan Ilyin – in this world of view, Ukraine’s revolutionary bid to escape to the West is a betrayal of Slavic brotherhood, and Russia should attempt to “save”
  • more likely, Putin intends to use it as a destablising factor and leverage for splitting Ukraine further, stop the country from moving towards the West;

《Sixes and sevens》

(分析了下西方手中都有哪些能打的牌,牌桌上的每个人其实都在暗暗掂量自己手里的筹码)

Mr Obama has a freer hand

  • relatively tiny amount of trade that America does with Russia – ten times lower than that between Europe and Russia;
  • indifference of American public

The opposite view taken but the doves

  • led by Germany, owe quite a lot to the importance of trade relationship – about a third of gas and oil Germany imported last year came from Russia;
  • Britain, shown no great enthusiasm for sanctions;

Long-term cost

  • future leaders of Ukraine will face even greater popular pressure to turn West;
  • a NATO with a new sense of purpose
  • and Russian stock market: its economy is now vulnerable to investor sentiment, a much quicker comeback than sanctions

《Let the sun shine》

For makers and users of solar power, the future looks bright.

  • growing rapidly (albeit from a small base); and cost has fallen so quickly – photovoltaic installations are the future
  • a biggest test will come in 2017, when the federal solar-investment tax credit drops from 30% to 10%;

Distributed solar power – generated from rooftop panels – undermines traditional centralized utility model

  • in 2013, third-party-owned systems accounted for most solar installations in CA, AZ, CL and MA
  • some utilities campaigned but were defeated;
  • though makes utilities skittish, many have rushed to embrace it on the supply side;  also, low installation and labour costs, clean power delivery at peak hours and a hedge against fuel-price volatility

《The burden of empire》

(本篇出现在Leaders的栏目中,并以一副批驳民族政策的口吻行文,观点谈不上新颖,但个别用词略煽动)

Xinjiang and Tibet (and Inner Mongolia) are still China’s colonies, their pacification under the Communist Party’s a continued imperial project. Were it not for the Dalai Lama’s restraining influence, violence in Tibet might be as bad as it is in Xinjiang.

《Not so sunny》

China’s first domestic bond default

  • Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy Science and Technology Co
  • panic will be limited, since not backed by local government;
  • (Fitch) “long-term positive for the market”

《Submerging hopes》

Rich-world firms with above-average exposure to emerging economies have lagged America’s storkmarket by about 40% over the past three years;

What went wrong?

  • some did not take risks seriously enough
  • bad management – too many overpaid for acquisitions;

A decade of low interest rates and rampant Chinese demand allowed all developing countries to grow at turbocharged rates – even those that were badly run. Now the global environment is less forgiving.

To improve:

  • should screen their portfolios for strategic relevance and financial returns
  • borrowing in local markets, shift more production to the emerging world, consider acquisitions to boost market shares;

《Emerge, splurge, purge》

(是一篇论据多于论点的综述,有趣的是其中援引的例子以印度、拉美甚至俄罗斯居多,鲜有中国)

The companies suffering a slowdown profits come in three buckets:

  • suffered a gentle weakening in demand and a currency drag: consumer firms;
  • cyclical and capital-intensive industries face a sharper slowdown and those firms with mismatches (costs or debts in firm currencies but sales in depreciating ones);
  • firms with idiosyncratic problems: China’s war on graft, Russia’s periodic crackdown on alcoholism;

The process accelerated dramatically by the mid-2000s, and subprime and euro crises made it irresistible;

A rule of thumb: half of the deal destroys value;

《One phone, many countries》

(非常有意思的一篇小文章,从iPhone 5s在拉丁美洲各国的销路来一窥每个国家所面临的的经济困境,语气轻松,不知本国读者又会作何感想了)

Brazil: the dearest in dollar terms, of the countries where Apple has stores (a 16G 5s costs $1,076)

  • Brazil cost: the exorbitant cost of doing business in the country, largely due to tariffs and state and federal taxes on imports; also high labour costs and expensive commercial rents

Venezuela: huge gap between the official and unofficial exchange rates, goods that are imported at the black-market rate are out of reach to most;

Argentina: devices that are assembled in the Patagonian province benefit from a 60% reduction in excise taxes but Apple refused to play ball like Samsung and Blackberry;

Pacific Alliance – Chile, Columbia, Mexico and Peru – things are easier, but what’s lacking if purchasing power

Obtaining a smartphone contract in Peru similarly involves lots of queuing, lots of paperwork, and the waste of a few hours. The hassles do not end there. Customer service is poor and flaunting your new toy risks theft. That is true of other countries in the region, too. Diverse as it is, Latin America does have some things in common.

 

【拜仁2比1勒沃库森】赢在不紧张

一场平淡的胜利,进球也是为数不多的闪光点。总体来看对手的防守还是很到位的,这样一支四平八稳的球队也难怪年年都能拿到欧冠席位(但难以走远就是了)。如今的拜仁在场上似乎进入到了一种“自治”的状态,有点当年巴萨的感觉,教练的意图是什么,对手的战术是什么,也变得不那么重要。所以到头来我也不知道,曼朱基奇的强力头槌,和小猪的圆月弯刀,到底算是球星的灵光一现,还是因为球队整体太强,最终总有那么一两个人冒出来承担进球的使命。

《远离电影》三篇

按:应好友寻帕慕克《伊斯坦布尔》读书笔记,倒也费了一番周折。从已删除账号里再找拿回此文已是不可能的事情,好在旧电脑依然坚挺,能容我把底稿翻出,以往昔人,跃然纸上,也是幸事一桩。

远离电影(2

2009-06-14 02:02:48

《伊斯坦布尔》是我许久之前就放在书架上的一本书

翻开看是2007年3月第一版第一次印刷的

我想我买下它也大概就是那时候

 

先花些笔墨描述我的书架

其实叫做书柜

我码书的方式没有特别的规律

不完全按照读过的顺序

或是作者的不同

有时候我会根据封面书脊的颜色

把相似的书放在一起

《伊》深灰色的封面

夹在《香水》《时间旅行者的妻子》《朗读者》《南回归线》中间

(注:老版的《朗读者》是深色封面)

显得沉稳而安静

老实说

我很喜欢这样的组合

就像剪辑胶片一样

排列的过程也是一种创造

有时候我会呆呆地看着它们

不知是期待着它们彼此间发生些什么奇妙的反应

还是想像着这些相似的颜色融合在一起时是什么样子

总之

这种肤浅的的娱乐

往往占据了我也许该用来读它们的时间

 

想想当时正是帕慕克红火于各大书店的时候

这却是我唯一一本他的书

我最初没有选择《我的名字叫红》

也许是因为这本比较薄的缘故

不过相比而言

伊斯坦布尔这个名字才是真正的原因

在书店挑选书的过程其实就是一种寻找与碰撞

到头来看看是谁触碰了你的神经末梢

我一直觉得

带着目的去书店或者是卖盘的地方是件很无趣的事情

所谓目的

就是告诉店员你要的是什么

接着用手接过他递过来的

然后或驻足或离开

我从不这样

就算是为了给这个世界平添一分偶然

 

有时候命运的确很精巧

2007年1月我刚听闻有《香水》这本书时

在西单的架上

我果然在不经意间看见了它

那种喜悦与得意

平凡而真切

当然也有到头来都是一场空的时候

也许我本不该找

因为它压根就不存在

也许它存在

只是我疏于发现

不管怎样

当我离去的时候

这两种可能依旧孤独而相互平行地延续着

正如一开始那样

没有谁抹杀了其中任何一个

 

对于这样的空

我不遗憾

我甚至视之为那“令人愉悦的悲伤”

可能这东西

或许从一开始就是被捏造出来的

现实的苍白之上

有就是有

没有就是没有

容不得半点含糊与平行

这世上并没有偶然

然而与路不同的是

这偶然

走的人多了就越是没有

 

我的题已经跑得很远了

伊斯坦布尔

与上述的悲喜无关

这世上有许多像这样中立而坚固而高大的形象

就好比麦卡勒斯笔下的聋子辛格

永远不会崩塌

永远值得依靠

我们赖以生存的城市也是这样

我有一种不知从何时建立起来的“大地情结”

从迷恋立交桥

到书写“人杰地灵”

从初三时就感慨过的安静地仰卧在黑夜中的三环路

到后来的卡尔维诺、城墙、废墟

从小学时候周末挂着月票满世界转悠

到后来的梦境中

俯贴在广袤的土地上

似乎在沉浸着而又等待着什么

一呼一吸间

我难以述清这种感受

我只知道伊斯坦布尔这简单的五个字

散发着无穷的魔力

班头曾经说

你看拜占廷、君士坦丁堡这些名字多好听

我很高兴还有许多人都有类似的通感

冒昧地说

通感是我们身之为人最为伟大而奇妙之处

它塑造了这个世界的千变万化

拓宽了感官的维度

 

现在看其实我一直都没跑题

从开始到现在

我说的都是一件事

那便是精神花园的建立

书的码放堆叠

像找寻宿命一般的买书过程

还有仅仅与书名交织在一起却可以打通任何感官的模糊情感

这一切

都像是在喃喃述说着我对现实的某种渴求与欲望

现实是一面冷冰冰的镜子

我站在它面前

却发现背后居然还藏着这样一个繁花似锦的天地

 

当无形的脑和心

像双手一样做着实实在在的事情

我会深深感到自己身处在一种平凡的幸福之中

 

远离电影(3

2009-06-14 10:28:41

美景之美,在其忧伤

帕慕克在故事开始前的这段引用

深沉而空旷

我瞬间就被这八个字拉到了伊斯坦布尔的风华之中

可以这样概括

全书着眼的是帕慕克还未成为帕慕克的那段年少时光

因为在最后的结尾

帕慕克自己说道

我不想当画家

我要成为作家

然而与之相对的是

故事中的伊斯坦布尔

始终是一位安详和蔼的老者

伴随在作者成长的左右

就这样

一种奇妙的感觉被营造出来

帕慕克笔下的忧愁感伤

我不知是源于他自己

还是来自伊斯坦布尔本身

伊斯坦布尔的命运就是我的命运

我依附于这个城市

只因她造就了今天的我

帕慕克在封面上如是说

 

我想先说的是科丘

作者笔下一位疯狂的作家

他的野心让我赞叹不已

科丘想要在有生之年编纂一部伊斯坦布尔的《百科全书》

按照字母表的顺序

通过搜集各种趣闻轶事

向世人呈现一个生动的伊斯坦布尔

然而

工程浩大

十多年过去当第一卷完成时

书依旧停留在字母B

到最终的最终也只不过到字母G而已

看到这里

我似乎看到了另一个疯狂追日的夸父

孤独而又固执地走在自己的路上

不知回头

 

我该很清楚这样的感受

从A到Z

故事不仅仅是这26个字母那么简单

每一个字母都会延伸出或多或少的小径

小径依然会分叉

最后这些分叉还会互相交接

彼此不分你我

我想这位一心编百科全书的科丘定不是一个严谨的学者

不懂得抑制

只知放纵自己的情感与冲动

我行我素

我在想

其实他就是那个挣扎于我们心中的欲望

如果能把心掏出来

也许它就会像这科丘一样跃然于纸上

生活的音符、旋律

也不过如此

 

在这次动笔之前

大概有半年之前吧

我曾策划着想要写一连篇题为《身边的诗人》的文字

如果成行

那记录的也是我身边这样或那样的科丘

记得我打开空白的word文档

一下子罗列出八九个名字

并排好了顺序

可最终这篇名为“身边的诗人”文档里仍旧只有这几个名字

即便如此

正如前文所说

名字一样富含诗意

 

我把俊宏放在了第一个

甚至视之为当仁不让

现在想来

我当数学和英语课代表

没准也算作命运的精巧安排

国红改变了我从不去办公室找老师的习惯

而俊宏

虽然始终若即若离不容接近

但每当我现在想起他

放那首starry starry night的时候

我就会深知其实我们是如此的接近

一个连自己都说或许不该成为老师的人

每次忆起他那些音容笑貌

那些根据我们当初乐此不疲的模仿而生成的音容笑貌

我总是抑制不住狂笑

狂笑不止

这也许是回忆的高境界(容我删去了一个“最”字)

癫狂

悲怆

因为我分明感受到了一种撼人心魄的力量

因为同样的感受

我喜欢“泪奔”这个词

一样的力量

 

若要我在想像中描述科丘的样子

我会说他就跟爱因斯坦一般

狰狞的脸

蓬乱的头发

还有尖锐的双眼

事实证明这不是我的想像

《伊斯坦布尔》里的确有一张他的大头照

凝视着正在读他的我

 

远离电影(4

2009-06-14 14:16:48

2009年1月放假的第一个工作日

说白了就是周一(其实还是假日)

我跟大师在西单

吃着不知道是她从什么时候就欠下来的请客

我跟她虽然身处同一个校园

但每一次见面都禁不住感叹

我怎么好久都没看见您了(这学期成了“您又憔悴了不少”)

是啊

也许正因为如此

我们每次见、闲聊的时间都格外长

虽然仔细想想

说的一大车话每次都说的是同样的话题

除了彼此的情况

剩下的话也总是针对那几个人

但是

从来都不会索然无味

虽说有时我都说完了告别的话连脚步都准备迈开了

但到头来看

那时只不过刚进行了一半而已

 

我俩在餐桌上

从边啃东西边说话

到边喝饮料边说

最后就是干说

时不时伴着两个人的狂笑声

还是这狂笑

畅快淋漓

到后来

也许是觉得该换换姿势

于是我们便走在回家的路上边走边说

沿着夜幕降临的长安街

一口气从西单一直延伸至大望路

这条生硬地串起我的高中和大学的直线

其实走一遭下来

胸中倒也格外坦荡

 

我当然记不清一路上所有的话题

倒是途径东单时的情景印象格外深刻

走在东单那座银色的天桥上

大师跟我说

您啊,还是该找个安静一些的

我在桥上的夜幕下沉默了一会儿

深吸一口气

冲自己点了点头

“恩,您说的是”

 

行走是个永恒的主题

我曾因“行者无疆”这个好名字买下了第一本余秋雨的书

在写给忘了是谁的同学录上

我在“最想成为”这一栏上填的就是“行者”

而在电影那一栏写的是“21克”

(与行者无关,只为印证那时的我已身处电影时代)

帕慕克笔下的伊斯坦布尔

同样有他本人不停地行走的足迹

那些长话连篇的所谓“呼愁”与废墟

我并不陌生

在我看来

他行走的闪光之处在于博斯普鲁斯

宽广的海面本身就是一个绝佳的隐喻

尤其是这将欧亚大陆拦腰截断的博斯普鲁斯海岸

加之

那沿岸或精致或颓败的帕夏宫殿

(岸边其实有许多,恕我除了海只记得这个)

消除了相较之茫茫大海的险恶感觉

我想

这一定是伊斯坦布尔最美丽的地方

 

我有个大学同学

她想在烟花四月下踏江南

去过一段行走如度日的生活

然而终究如最初预料的

计划搁浅

我想

一经下定决心

谁都可以挣脱心里面的束缚

但正如大海的空旷险恶

外在环境无不令我们每一个人望而却步

从这点上看

能够行走在博斯普鲁斯沿岸的帕慕克无疑是幸福的

还有那个斯文的余秋雨

走在千禧之路上的他

一定也是戒卫森严

最起码

有个能跟伊拉克海关吵架的陈鲁豫

 

还有一段行走不可不提

刚上大学的一个周末

不知何故

与她一同从学校走着回家

最后到大望路实在是累得不行(事实上这段路程要短许多)

我还记得一路上我都叫嚣着要去吃串儿

在loft面酷门前还炫耀了一个刚背的托福单词

(那个词当然不是loft)

不过这都不是重点

全程我都在抒发着由许多状态杂糅在一起的情感

我抛给了她(不如说是黑夜)各种各样的问题

有些同样是以“为什么”为开头

有时候

我又低头陷入沉思

等待着听者附和上一句合时宜的回应

面对大地

我毫无保留地将一个个文件夹打开

(其实不可能毫无保留,文件夹一直打开到最近才告一段落)

 

那段时期

平时一个人回学校

走在西门的天桥上

炽烈的阳光总会激起我莫名的悲伤和流泪的冲动

与当年2月的每个下午走出家门时不无两样

而两个人行走在一段黑夜中

我不知道

我心中所感究竟是与之相似还是不同

但为君故,沉吟至今

我觉得这两句话用来形容那个晚上的迷离状态倒很贴切

 

这个晚上的结尾让人惊讶

拖着疲惫的双脚回到家

眼睛无意间扫到日历

2007年9月21日

我猛然意识到

第二天就是她的生日

时光飞快

我不但已然身处在电影时代

有我而没有你

而且

再过几个小时的第二天

我的双脚就将要从你生日的这一天默默地迈过去

 

现在想想

不过是些遥远的事了

经历过和大师一起时而沉默时而狂笑的另一段行走

我深知帕慕克在那一章节结尾处写到的

生活也没什么大不了的

无论发生什么事

我随时都能漫步在博斯普鲁斯沿岸

Economist Mar 1st 2014

How the West can help

A MAN goes bankrupt, Ernest Hemingway wrote, gradually, then suddenly. Autocrats lose office the same way, as the fate of Viktor Yanukovych, Ukraine’s deposed president, dramatically illustrates.

Lessons from Orange revolution

  • vital that the presidential election in May is clean (20024: an event that seemed to herald a democratic future, but instead merely reshuffled an entrenched elite);
  • will need help and not just the financial kind – without a proper underpinning, emerging democracies can slip back into misrule;

Putin: he will doubtless do his best to stop the country becoming an independent democracy.

The February revolution

The revolution was not just about getting rid of one kleptocrat

  • the post-Soviet order which prevailed in Ukraine has not been uprooted;
  • the Maidan was not the only player in the revolution;
  • worrying civil order and economic abyss;
  • the two parts (east and south) complicates the future and the successive government failed to find a vision or narrative with which to unite the country;
  • Putin’s take in Crimea;

But although Mr Yanukovych provided oligarchs and Maidan with a common enemy in the run up to the revolution, the allies could well turn into adversaries in the aftermath. The oligarchs and their political place-men are creatures of the dysfunctional state that Maiden rejects; some will surely seek to use the revolution to regain their lost interests and restore the pre-Yanukovych status quo.

A memo to Obama

America not a mobile place: a child born in the poorest fifth of society has only a 9% chance of making it to the top fifth;

The solutions: to incentivise work in other ways

  • (Marco Rubio) wage subsidy, a reverse payroll tax that would strengthen the connection to work;
  • minimum wage would cost around 500,000 jobs, can be counteracted through the EITC;
  • intensive counselling and training to the long-term umemployed (as Britain experimented);
  • Disability Insurance become more generous (number of beneficiaries from 1.5m in 1970 to 8.9m in 2013), key is to persuade them not to apply;
  • spent only 0.1% of GDP on “active” labour-market programmes, compared to OECD average 0.6%;
  • Better to concentrate the money on the smaller, younger, truly disadvantaged group of children.

One way no more

China’s currency has long been a source of controversy, but it is rarely a source of uncertainty;

“Carry trade”: speculators borrowed cheaply in dollars, then lent in yuan, eluding China’s capital controls in the hope of benefiting both from higher Chinese interest rates and the yuan’s appreciation;

These fundamentals (export earnings and foreign-direct investment) both suggest the yuan should rise again. But by wrongfooting the speculators, the authorities hope that the expectation of appreciation will not remain a cause of that appreciation.

Foe or frenemy?

online funds that are offering returns that are 15 times higher than conventional deposit accounts;

China’s cap on deposit rates is causing money to flood into shadow-banking products such as those offered by “trust;”

Alibaba launched Yu’e Bao, then Baidu and Tencent entered the fray;

Impact:

  • indeed hurting the banks: sucking away money – bank deposits fell by one trillion yuan in January;
  • Not possible to lead to massive disruption of the sector: even if a tenth of bank deposits flee to online products (a heroic assumption), it might cut the net interest margin at banks by just 0.1%.

Government coughers

The prevalence of smoking is greater in countries like Austria and Russia;

starting to take notice of the problem – Mao Zedong smoked like a chimney but it is rare to see a senior leader smoking in public now;

restrictions on smoking in indoor public places – has hardly kicked the habit

  • In fact, the revenues of the Chinese cigarette-manufacturing industry shot up from 285 billion yuan in 2005, to 757 billion yuan in 2012;

The most powerful measure is tax

  • this approach works in both South Africa and France;
  • Chinese cigarettes are taxed so lightly (cheapest pack in rural areas sell for just two yuan, five yuan in cities);

Another great obstacle is tobacco lobby

  • In 2012, the tobacco industry turned in 6% of official revenue – as big in Beijing politics as petroleum and property;

Now or Naver

almost 80% of Korean search market, making the country one of just three where Google is not top (the other two are Russia and China);

still rising – online advertising sales grew by 7.7% last year;

has began to exhibit some of the least attractive traits of the chaebol (industrial conglomerate)

  • buying up smaller potential rivals;
  • using its market power to stop other portals getting access to content;

South Koreans now spent more on KakaoTalk than they do on Naver;

real strength abroad – its decade of experience in the portal business

  • “doing everything” from games to shopping to online newspapers;
  • Line: makes 70% of money from games and electronic “stickers”

一种关注(十四)

  • Wed: Letter from an Unknown Woman (7:00)
  • Thu: Mean Streets (4:30; 7:00; 9:30)
  • Fri: Raging Bull (2:00; 4:40; 9:45); The Third Man (7:00); Days of Heaven (9:30)
  • Sat: Letter from an Unknown Woman (1:30); Raging Bull (7:00; 9:45)
  • All time: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Bull    Mean   Grand Hotel

如果把伍迪·艾伦暂且比作纽约街角跃动的音符,那么马丁·斯科塞斯才是纽约真正的魂。本周中开始,BAM 玫瑰剧院将推出一期特别的“side by side”双导演系列——“Under the Influence: Scorsese/ Walsh”。老马丁久负盛名的黑帮电影,如《穷陋街巷》(1973, 112min, 7.5, 7.6),《愤怒的公牛》(1980, 129min, 8.3, 8.4)等,其实是深受上世纪二三十年代的美国导演Raoul Walsh影响,如《穷陋街巷》来自一部叫做《Regeneration》的作品——描写纽约街头移民生活景象的头几部影片之一;而响当当的《愤怒的公牛》里面搏击的场面,则是源于Walsh另一部作品《Gentleman Jim》。如果有机会能够真正”side by side”地品评这些出自两个不同的年代却又情境相通的电影,相信会别有一番收获。

Heaven   Letter   Man 

MoMA 的奥地利专题系列仍在进行中。本周惹人关注的有德国导演马克斯·奥尔菲斯的《一封陌生女人的来信》(1948, 86min, 8.0, 7.8),当然这部作品由于出自奥地利作家茨威格的短篇小说而更显得亮眼许多。此外,女主角也是一大看点——奥斯卡影后,同时也是另一部文学改编电影《Rebecca》的女主演琼·方丹。

英国导演卡罗尔·里德的作品《第三人》(1949, 93min, 8.4, 8.1)也是讲述发生在维也纳的故事。本片荣膺当年嘎纳电影节评审团奖和1951年奥斯卡最佳摄影奖,电影奇才奥逊·威尔斯也在其中有着短暂而精彩的出演。

此外,Rubin Museum of Art 周五晚间的“歌舞场”系列本周迎来美国导演泰伦斯·马力克的《天堂之日》(1978, 94min, 8.0, 7.7),同样是一部同时获得嘎纳奖项(最佳导演)和奥斯卡最佳摄影的作品。而在主流院线上,韦斯·安德森的新作《布达佩斯大饭店》(2014, 99min, 8.4, 8.5)也格外引人注目,本片是今年二月新鲜出炉的柏林银熊奖得主,应该也是目前市面上唯一一部在映的柏林影展获奖作品。

Economist Feb 22nd 2014

《Putin’s inferno》

  • “Kiev is one of the few European cities where the European Union is synonymous with good government and the rule of law.”
  • Virtually all of Ukraine’s established politicians have discredited themselves: the protesters have no clear champion – one reason the violence may prove difficult to stop;

《Europe’s new battlefield》

  • Ukraine’s elites understood independence as right to pillage their country;
  • compounding the problem: Russian-speaking, industrialized east of the country and Crimea, and the nationalist-minded western Ukraine – the core of the protesters;
  • an issue of a free-trade agreement with the EU or a customs union with Russia suddenly becomes an existential choice between a corrupt and authoritarian post-Soviet system of governance and a European one;
  • Russia has long coveted Crimea.

《How to make the world $600 billion poorer》

  • Mr Obama now appears to be surrendering to protectionists within his own party
  • Congress must approve the trade agreements,  however, a fast-track vote before November seems unlikely;
  • Tea Party Republicans: loth to grant Mr Obama the authority to do anything;
  • Democrats: the idea that they will not do much to help the economy; brand themselves as the anti-inequality party;
  • Mr Obama could have explained more … mentioning that cheap imports help reduce inequality of consumption;
  • “America cannot turn inward,” the Obama of 2008 said in Berlin. The Obama of 2014 is now responding:” Yes we can.”

《Taking aim at imports》

  • America’s continent-spanning economy is more self-contained than many people realize – imports and exports amounts to 23% of GDP, compared with 26% for the EU or 46% for China;
  • last time was in 2002, even so, 183 Democrats voting no, and moreover, the deal was small;
  • Compared to mid-1990s NAFTA, the level of scepticism is probably higher – citing NAFTA as the lessons;
  • Opponents requires more policy-making transparency – 1,150 meetings on the Asia deal alone is apparently insufficient;
  • a large group that likes the trade in theory but not in practice – “recent presidents have seized Congress’s constitutional trade authority” and ask for it to be returned;
  • It is hard to oppose greater transparency without sounding sinister.

《The politics of little bricks》

  • fits the old stereotype of Hollywood peddling anti-capitalist propaganda to kids, but hold on, the film is also an hour-and-a-half-long commercial for costly toys made by a multinational, a commercial that people must pay to see;

《Bridging the fiscal chasm》

  • at the end of 2013, liabilities of local governments: $1.8 trillion, one third of China’s GDP;
  • Guizhou, biggest fiscal chasm, liabilities 80% of its GDP;
  • some of the backing is implicit: if these guarantees are booked at their expected cost, Gansu’s debt burden falls from 44% to 19% of GDP;
  • debts look heavy compared with taxes: Yunnan and Qinghai, 260% and 370% of their budget revenues; however, China’s provinces do not have to rely on revenues, other funds – transferred from central government, land sales;

《Getting the messages》

  • Two profound trends that are transforming the technology landscape: rapid growth of web-connected smartphones and dramatic decline in the cost of building start-ups;

《Here, there and everywhere》

  • Dutch advantage: balance power between management, the board and shareholders, no meeting required to approve resolutions, few requirements on compensation – Europe’s Delaware; ability to issue “loyalty” shares;
  • British advantage: tax.

Economist Feb 15th 2014

《The parable of Argentina》

  • Embraced Washington consensus in the 1990s but the crunch in 2001 left it permanently suspicious of liberal reform
  • Argentina’s decline has been largely self-inflicted: protectionism, prefer quick-fix rather than thorough reform of the country’s schools

《A century of decline》

Three deep-lying explanations:

  • Rich but not modern 100 years ago: low literacy rates, lowest secondary-school attendance;
  • Being out of sync with the rest of the world, trading policy: the divide between farmers and workers;
  • Not evolving political apparatus, short-termism;

《The petrostate of America》

  • Franking: should have added 2-4% to American GDP;
  • Oil boom, owed less to geological luck than enterprise, ready finance, and dazzling technology;
  • Foreign policy might not change, but energy policy should: lift the oil export ban, getting permits of gas export more easily; generating cash to pay foreign policy dividends; also might cause domestic gas prices to rise a little;

《Saudi America》

  • Turn America into a swing producer; make both dollar and the economy less sensitive to oil prices;
  • Back to stabilizing role it played in the 1960s;
  • Crude-oil could start more or less straight away; but the political debate is only in its infancy;

《TV star》

  • Advocating of consolidation: more power to negotiate with content companies; margins only 50% compared to broadband 100%;
  • Financial discipline, better control cost than conventional Hollywood boss;
  • “Not the best at innovating, but the best at scaling others’ innovations”

《Fixing forward guidance》

  • Specific threshold of Fed and BoE: 6.5% and 7%; they are muddying them now;
  • Fed downplayed; BoE scrapped the unemployment threshold – a clearer message;

《Closing the gap》

  • Gap between actual and potential output, hard to discern; three different indicators tell different stories;

《The growth paradox》

  • No link between economy growth per capita and stock market returns: “value” effect; stock market not a perfect representation of the domestic economy (real dividend growth more slowly than the economy);

《No profits, we promise》

  • JD is pursuing an “asset-heavy” model that puts scale and market-share above short-term profits;
  • Two big questions: logistic infrastructure and local rivals (Tencent and Alibaba)

《A number of great import》

  • Current account surplus narrowed to only 2% of GDP last year; but by far the largest services deficit in the world (already helped by less competitive yuan, which rose over 7% last year);

Economist Feb 8th 2014

《The worldwide wobble》

  • Necessary correction of market
  • More like a wobble than a tumble
  • No reason to expect a sudden spending slump
  • Slowing rather than slumping china
  • More easing on Europe and Japan

《Goldilocks and the bears》

  • Increase in short rates far from imminent
  • The worst-hits have been those with specific problems
  • As money flows back to US, let exchange rate slide and risk inflation, or increase interest rates and risk a recession?
  • No sign of problems in corporate results yet
  • Equities look expensive, positive for government bonds

《My country is right or righter》

  • NHK seek to follow the government’s line
  • For Abe and LDP, rebooting the media is a strategic priority
  • Pacifism still remains popular at home

《Search over》

  • How link works: Google Shopping scored 36.7% of clicks, against 5% for rivals;
  • Now it will show links to rivals alongside;

《News you can lose》

  • CNN: no glory in the role of unbiased “referee” between partisan networks (left-leaning MSNBC, and conservative Fox News); “Nobody goes to the game to see the ref.”
  • More people turning to the internet: “there is a ‘ceiling’ to how many people are getting their news from television today.”
  • what works today is entertainment;
  • CNN’s costs are also high: it has more bureaus than MSNBC and Fox News; “in produce business,” “News comes and goes so quickly.”

《Countervailing motion》

  • Fed’s shift to less expansionary monetary policy is only half the story: Central bank in Euro area and Japan are still moving in the opposite direction – “not conducting synchronized tightening”;
  • “If Japan is confronting the ghost of deflation past, the euro zone is spooked by deflation yet to come.”
  • BOJ started asset purchase $70bn a month, far greater relative to Japan’s economy – pushed up headline inflation to 1.6%, with core inflation (energy and food) entering into positive territory and rising at fastest pace since 1998;
  • Abe’s resuscitation plan – encourage hiring and raise wages;
  • Turmoil from EM: as global investors seek refuge in financial havens, the yen has started to appreciate again – make Abe nervous about raising the consumption tax;
  • Euro zone: core inflation only 0.8%, one notch up from the record low 0.7% at the end of 2013;

《Down to 1.4 and 17》

  • 20% of performance fees and 2% of management fees down to 17% and 1.4%;
  • Hedge funds as a whole undershot just about any benchmark in recent years;
  • Another factor: rush of new investors (pension funds, endowments, sovereign funds), greater negotiating power