Wrapping up season. 最特别的一种等待，叫做姗姗来迟。在各家媒体为2014的电影话评总结的时候，你会发现榜单上的有那么些个名字，看着很眼熟，却不记得是否看过。没错，这些影片的档期都被排在了一年里最末尾的位置。早在红五月戛纳时节就名扬大江南北的金棕榈奖作品，土耳其导演锡兰的《冬眠》（2014, 196 min, 8.8, 8.2），于本周五在Lincoln Plaza Cinema 揭开神秘的面纱。这部电影并不在早前的纽约电影节当中；而MoMA 曾在10月底举办过一次锡兰的全回顾展，导演本人也亲临现场，但当时的纽约首映也是一票难求。所以，与去年同获金棕榈奖的《阿黛尔的故事》受到的礼遇相比，这一次我们等的时间确实足够长。

《冬眠》前脚赶到，戛纳最佳编剧获奖得主，俄罗斯导演萨金塞夫的《利维坦》（2014, 140 min, 8.1, 8.3）便后脚跟来——本片将在圣诞节当天于Film Forum 掀开帷幕。有意思的是，这一天也是讲述暗杀朝鲜领袖的《The Interview》的计划上映时间（当然现在由于众所周知的原因已经被迫推迟）。这部影片，从名字本身，到导演的国籍背景，都带着浓厚的政治意味，结合上近半个月以来原油价格和金融市场的动荡，在这个时候观看本片，也许恰是一个好时候。本作品还入选了上周刚出炉的金球奖最佳外语片提名，将与《艾达》《游客》等已经在北美上映多时的作品共同角逐该奖项。

      

说到姗姗来迟，美国本土出品的作品里面也有这么一位，那便是保罗·托马斯·安德森以L.A. 为剧情蓝本的《性本恶》（2014, 148 min, 8.1, 8.5），本片改编自美国小说家托马斯·品钦的同名作品，在本周大规模公映之前，热身活动可谓是十分活跃：不仅早在九月就跻身纽约电影节的Central Piece （去年获得此席位的是后来大杀四方的《为奴十二载》）；而在十一月底，BAM Rose 还专门为此推出了名为“Sunshine Noir” 的系列展映，一举囊括21部以L.A. 犯罪为题材的影片——当然，这个组成自然是20片绿叶，1朵红花。

贯穿这个冬天，美国著名的剧情片导演罗伯特·奥特曼的全回顾展不声不息地在MoMA 进行。本周末，他最有名的一部作品——向美国国庆200周年的献礼之作《纳什维尔》（1975, 159 min, 7.8, 8.1）和另一部颇具文艺范和实验性的作品《三女性》（1977, 124 min, 7.9, 7.9）将登台亮相，也是一次不可多得的进一步了解这位导演的好机会。值得一提的是，上述保罗·托马斯·安德森的偶像，正是罗伯特·奥特曼。

   

Sheikhs v shale

• since July high of almost $115, now near 40% plunge;
• the main culprits – oilmen of North Dakota and Texas – has boosted American’s oil production by a third;
• positives: equivalent to a 2% pay rise, global GDP should rise, reduce already-low inflation, encourage central bankers towards looser monetary policy;
• losers: oil producers including Russia, Nigeria, and Venezuela;
• Saudi Arabia’s stand: let the price fall and put high-cost producers out of business;
• Different economics of shale: can be drilled as little as possible, thus being less vulnerable to shocks or manipulation

The whole business becomes a bit more like manufacturing drinks: whenever the world is thirsty, you crank up the bottling plant.

E.ON and E.OUT

• Germany’s Energiewende, or “Energy transition”, aims to shut down all nuclear plants by 2022; before, renewable energies are heavily subsidized;
• E.ON announced a spin-off between its nuclear business and fossil fuels – not necessarily a creation of “bad utility” (“looking for investors who haven’t read a newspaper since the Energiewende began”): the new firm will be born debt-free and have provisions to cover the exit from nuclear power and shareholders could expect respectable cash dividends;
• Hostile regulatory environment not the only reason: energy sector is becoming more decentralized and making more use of data – GE and Siemens are investing to make grids smarter;
• On the other end, Germany cannot quit nuclear power while making a pell-mell exit from fossil fuels;

In a bind

Saudi Arabia, the leading member of OPEC, has made it clear it will tolerate lower prices in order to do the shale firms’ finances what fracking does to rocks.

• Two generalizations: the industry’s economics are good at almost any price (big independent firms, operating costs were $10-20 per barrel); it is far less clear if the industry can profitably invest in new wells to maintain or boost production (at $60, investment could drop by as much as half);
• another vulnerability: weak balance sheet; invest more than they earn, and increasing leverage;
• adversity may make shale stronger – it will prompt a new round of innovation, from cutting drilling costs through standardization to new fracking techniques that increase output;