【拜仁0比1皇马】仍有可期

也不能说就因为这一场比赛暴露出来的问题就忧心忡忡,空有控球,光打雷不下雨,破密集防守无力,这些顽疾其实一直都在,只不过被这样一场零进球的失利给放大罢了。本场毕竟是180分钟比赛的第一回合,瓜帅在客场战略上求稳是很明显的,里贝里罗本串联不频繁,用拉姆小猪克罗斯三后腰,禁区里只留曼朱季奇一个点,甚至说还原丹特和博阿滕的中卫组合,都能从侧面印证出瓜帅本人应该也不会对这个比分过于失望。从马丁内斯和穆勒被换上场这两步棋来看,瓜帅是清楚手里握有什么牌并且知道怎么去用的,现在只能理解为,时机未到而已。赛前德媒传出本场首发将重现小猪和马丁内斯的“海帅组合”,本来心里为之一振,可实际上却还是上的拉菲尼亚,直接导致右路罗本孤立无援(这个问题已经不用再重复了,我现在对这条右路组合已经几近无语状态)。

反观皇马,群星虽然不是个个都非常闪亮但整场下来,一步一步都走得非常扎实,莫德里奇和阿隆索的中路非常干脆合理——其实本场拜仁中路本就偏软,很少出现正面交锋刺刀见红的情形——下一场比赛需要更加压迫这两个人才行。受战术所致,皇马的锋线威慑力也一般,那个丢球虽然是典型的反击套路,但多少也拜我们自己后方的立足未稳所赐。

下一场比赛需要的是进球和不丢球,单独来看,两者都不难,但合在一起却并不容易,就看瓜帅和全队将士能不能被这场比赛的过程和结果激发出足够的热情和专注。还是那句话,我们知道我们手里有什么牌,我们也知道对手想干嘛,到时就看主帅的魄力和球员在场上是否能像前些年那样群狼扑食般在主场打出属于自己的比赛了。

加油!

Economist Apr 19th 2014

(乌克兰局势进一步升级,长长短短一共五篇文章,把政治策略,制裁利弊,经济影响,和军事实力一一做了个详述)

《Insatiable

  • Infiltration to Eastern Ukraine; not quite invasion;
  • Reasons why Russia might want to destabilize Ukraine: stop presidential elections? justify overt Russian intervention? civil conflict that destroys the authority of Kiev;

There is nothing wrong with federalism in principle, but this would be a formula for Russian domination.

《Boys from the Blackstuff

  • The occupations have shown how little authority Ukraine’s government has in the east;
  • Moving military against Ukraine is costly for Putin: salaries, pensions, subsidizing coal mines, would cost twice as much for Donetsk as in Crimea;
  • (Alexander Dugin, Russia’s most vocal imperial nationalist and anti-American ideologue) Maidan revolution in Kiev was an American plot to drag Ukraine into the EU and NATO; having failed to make this happen, America is now trying to provoke violent clashes to justify NATO military bases in Ukraine;

《Turning off the Taps

  • Start with finance, because of the pre-eminence of the dollar;
  • Such sanctions have been used increasingly since the 1990s: helping nudge Pyongyang back to the negotiating table; helped soften Tehran’s stance over its nuclear program;
  • The Treasury has been deliberately vague about how strong such links have to be:

If one bank or company stops doing business with an entity, so does everyone else. No one wants to be an outlier.

  • Sanctions also invite countermeasures: hit Rosneft and you hurt BP, ExxonMobil as well; Russia could 1) choose to investigate foreign investors for tax “irregularities”; 2) enlist hackers to destabilize American banks and exchanges, as it proposed to China back in 2008;

《From Bad to Worse

  • Sanctions are pretty limited on paper, but they have created a “scare factor” that is magnifying their effect;
  • … could also create openings for competitors (Chinese firms);
  • Russian firms are casting around Asia and elsewhere for new customers: Rosneft is seeking to treble its exports of oil to China;
  • Losing access to foreign loans – what it will mean for investment, productivity, and growth;
  • Weak currency will be an advantage for local brands? Not actually, many Russian manufacturers depend on imports for inputs and equipment;

(中国部分一共四篇文章,涵盖了城市化、独立记者、旅游和“屌丝”这个新兴词汇,中规中矩,但某种程度上还像是拿着万花筒在窥探这个神奇的国度)

《China’s Losers

  • (Analysys International) More than 90% of programmers and journalists and about 80% of food and service industry and marketing workers said they saw themselves as diaosi; civil servants least identified with being losers in the survey;

《Coming to a Beach near You

  • Next step: get visa easier; tailor language, products and services to the Chinese market – “They are very afraid of being treated as second-class”;
  • “Authentic”, “limited edition” or “VIP” have always appealed to the Chinese;
  • Getting noticed is the toughest step;

(亚太和新兴市场方面,主要文章有日本安倍首相在奥巴马即将访日之际开始采取温和的“中间”政策;印度大选,莫迪及其代表的反对党继续占据优势,还有的就是下面这篇关于巴西人如何效率低下的报道。一直觉得Economist的拉美部分总带着些不失严肃的小幽默,本篇的取材也不例外)

《The 50-Year Snooze

  • “The moment you land in Brazil you start wasting time.”

Few cultures offer a better recipe for enjoying life.

  • TFP is lower now than it was in 1960; Brazil invests just 2.2% of its GDP in infrastructure; low quality education; badly managed companies; protectionism;
  • Preferential tax treatment (for firms with turnovers of no more than $1.6m) discourages companies from growing;
  • Two salutary examples: deregulated agriculture in 1990 and institutional reforms in financial services a few years later;

《Status Shift

Social networks promised marketers a revolution, but what they have delivered is just boring traditional ads.