Seize the Day

For decades the big question about energy was whether the world could produce enough of it, in any form and at any cost. Now, suddenly, the challenge should be one of managing abundance.

Current policies:

• America still bans the export of oil and restricts exports of natural gas;
• Generous subsides for nuclear power and bio-fuels;
• Europe: billions have gone to wind and solar projects.

Reform:

• The most straightforward piece – simply to remove all subsidies for producing or consuming fossil fuels (price of petrol has been held down due to encourage companies to search for oil): India and Indonesia have made the move, beginning to cut fuel subsidies, freeing up money to spend on hospitals and schools.
• Raise taxes on fossil fuels – higher taxes would encourage conservation. As fuel prices fall, a carbon tax is becoming less daunting.

A carbon tax is a much better way to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases than subsidies for windmills and nuclear plants.

• Governments should encourage the growth of seamless global energy markets – America should approve Keystone XL and lifts its export restrictions

Heading for parity

Parity with the dollar is quite plausible this year.

• Greece: the risks of an accidental exit are uncomfortably real; even if it stays in, wary investors may decide to ditch their euro exposure, pushing the single currency down further.
• More importantly, fundamentals: there is no sign of boldness from politicians (to kickstart the single market or to boost investment) – all eyes are on the ECB and its willingness to create money to buy sovereign bonds

QE would be better than no QE … Everyone would gain if the euro area avoids a renewed descent into crisis. But if the euro falls even further, Europe would most likely come to rely ever more on exports for its growth … A weaker currency will help, but is far less good than a balanced European recovery based on health investment and spending at home.

Republicans in Charge

• Republicans now control both chambers in 30 state legislatures, while Democrats control 11 and eight are split. In 24 states Republican power is unchecked – meaning they control the legislature and the governorship. The party has not had this much clout in the states since the 1920s

Act on conservatism – cutting taxes, trimming welfare, and restricting abortion

• Scott Walker (Wisconsin): a hero for taking on the public-sector unions;
• Sam Brownback (Kansas): tax cuts.

The tide of conservative legislation may be ebbing – now a more moderate tone

• Walker: faced with a $2.2bn budget gap, the governor has largely abandoned talk of cutting taxes;
• Doug Ducey (Arizona): scaled back cutting income taxes;
• Gary Herbert (Utah), Bruce Rauner (Illinois) are following suit.
• Brownback: acknowledged that the state has economic problems, but claimed “the solutions are principally cultural and moral”.
• John Kasich (Ohio): more pragmatic – now wants to cut income taxes even more, by raising taxes on energy companies.
• Obamacare: more and more will “find some way to accept the extra cash and expand Medicaid.”

… on fiscal issues, at least, tight budgets restrain the radicals of the right.

 

《关雎》《葛覃》与《卷耳》

家里的灯坏了，睡前只好开着iPhone的手电在被窝里看了《周南》的前三篇。所谓“周南”，后人解作周公从南方采回的乐曲。南方的乐曲呢，在乎“乱”，孔子曰，“《关雎》之乱，洋洋乎盈耳”。读到这儿的时候，还未能解其缘由，阅罢前三篇，总算知其一二了。

怕是语文课本选篇的缘故，我一直以为《关雎》是跟《卫风·氓》一般的求偶歌曲，洋溢着一股“氓之蚩蚩，抱布贸丝”的憨厚劲儿。其实非也，正如孔子所说，《关雎》的精彩之处是在于其尾声时琴瑟与钟鼓齐鸣的混乱与癫狂之感（插一句，总觉得“琴瑟与钟鼓齐鸣”是“落霞与孤鹜齐飞”的下半句），把对爱人的思恋——“寤寐思服”“辗转反侧”——进一步上升到一种奇特的载歌载舞的疯狂状态，很是有趣。古往今来，描述思念的名句有太多，不过中国（后来）文人的婉约作态，让人觉得思念无非就是“锦瑟无端五十弦，一弦一柱思华年”那般柔长。可《诗经》首篇却为我们奠定了另一种姿态：

参差荇菜，左右采之。窈窕淑女，琴瑟友之。

参差荇菜，左右芼之。窈窕淑女，钟鼓乐之！

原始的地方，人们常常会说民风剽悍，其实诗歌亦如此。原始的诗歌，有一种后世难觅的粗朴奔放。这种粗放，很多时候来自于行文落脚结尾处的笔调突转上扬。首篇《关雎》便是一例。而次篇——讲述妇女操守和美德的《葛覃》，在我看来也是一个很好的例子。前两节，铺尽温暖的笔调讲述山间采割葛草的幸福场景，完全看不出这是一篇宣讲妇女三从四德的小民歌。第三节伊始，笔锋一转，“言告师氏，言告言归”，眼前立即出现了一位像容嬷嬷一样的老妇人形象，十分不友好，开始讲述为妇之道。最终，以“害浣害否，归宁父母”作结，读到这里心情进一步沉到谷底，此间少年，竟也要开始忧虑起将来了。

当然，我们毕竟是带着现代的道德观念去审视古诗的内容，美与不美，全由今人的观念所决定，多少有些不公平。不过明戴君恩也有同感，他在《读风臆评》中写道：“……三章忽设‘归宁’一段，空中构想，无中生有，奇奇怪怪，极意描写。从来认‘归宁’为实境，不但诗趣索然，更于事理可笑。”诗中趣味有无，也许因人品味而异，但戴所提到的“忽然”和“无中生有”，却是世人之共识，而也正是我所觉得《葛覃》虽情趣索然但却诗趣横生的地方。

第三首《卷耳》，以另一植物命名，但与《葛覃》相比，却感情迥异。《葛覃》到头来是一篇严肃的作品，而讲述妇人思念夫君的《卷耳》就要深情和开放许多，也因此更加贴合我们现代人的情感想法。篇中描写妇人对夫君行路上借酒浇愁的想象，更是成为了千古名句。再次欣赏一番：

陟彼崔嵬，我马虺隤。我姑酌彼金罍，维以不永怀。

陟彼高冈，我马玄黄。我姑酌彼兕觥，维以不永伤。

如果不假思索或脱离开语境，读到这两段，你会误以为眼前是那个长袖翩翩的李白，在行路途中饮孤酒对影三人。实则是也，却又非也。这两段确实讲的是行路男子对妻子的思念，但它的特别之处在于，全篇其实是一首以妻子为口吻来叙述的情诗。从对方的角度来抒发自己的思念，可谓十分绝妙。这种写法对于后世的影响也十分深远。