饶平如《平如美棠》

这一期不过是寻常巷陌的情理,也没什么传奇可言,就是一个世纪来一对普通男女的生活,我们也明知收视不会太好,但还是要做这一期。老先生的孙女舒舒在信中写过“时代是不一样的了,像他的画册里有一页‘相思始觉海非深’那么严重的句子,可能不是每个人都有幸和有勇气可以引到自己身上的”,策划小余回信说:“换了我,我也会问自己,会不会不遗余力长久做一些无望的事。但我想,因为喜欢,所以情愿。时光可以让一个人面目全非,也让另外一些人愈加清晰。”

我问过饶先生,“这画册中写了很多的内容,你最希望后代能够记住什么?”

“一个人做人要忠厚。忠厚的人总归是可以持久的。”

这二字他践行一生,像一点润如酥的雨,落下无形无迹,远看才草色青青,无际无涯。

男人们总是要出门的,这一出仪式想来是在向四方神灵叩拜,请保佑他们在行旅途中舟车平安吧。日后我从军南北,又被命运安排在这里或那里,唯故乡是几十年未曾回,倚松山房也早已毁于兵燹。偶然念起当日插下的一炷炷香,当日的轻烟便是这样脉脉地散入故乡的清平岁月里,带着亲人目光一样的眷眷。

十六岁的一天,我与往常一样在太平桥头吹风,忽然抬眼望去,看傍晚的天光瞬息幻变,从姑山就静矗在这旖旎的绯红色流光中。又低头看脚下桥墩的尖角,只觉好像轮船削尖的船头一般,上游的江水挟着草木的碎屑滚滚而下,至此被劈开为二,随后打几个漩涡,终于涣涣地去了下游。我看得神迷,就在这晦暗不定的天色里起了人生世界之思。其实也不过是常见的少年情志,却让我始终记得了这日。然后数十载人生倾泻而下,在美棠走后,我于二〇〇八年仲夏回南城,特地又到太平桥。当时倚靠的木栏杆如今也和桥面一样砌了水泥。当时的桥头靠近东门城墙的地方有一座颇为高大的茶楼,周边聚集着人流和商贾,挑担的、推车的、背负的,而今人与楼俱往。然而抬眼望去,还能看见从姑山的形状与印象中少年时所见全无二致。低头看桥墩,桥墩也是旧时模样,桥下旴江水也仍是这样滚滚地来,被尖角劈开,再被卷入漩涡,最后淙淙流去,心下顿觉得安宁。山形依旧,流水澹澹,江月年年,星汉灿烂,原都不是为了要衬得人世无常的。

五六分钟以后,我带着迫击炮排也登上观音山顶。日军已溃逃,狭窄的观音山顶空余几个散兵壕。壕中有一具满脸髭须,胸毛袒露的日本兵尸首。地上满是弹壳,山头左侧躺着赵排长,脚边即是敌人尸首。我略一回顾,见此时千山环翠,万籁俱寂,硝烟未散,残阳滴血。但忙又急速下山,继续追敌。

三弟婚事完毕,我的假期也将结束。美棠随家人同返临川,我就带着她的照片回部队。此时六十三旅炮兵营已移回泰州驻地,故我回部队仍走原先的路线:先到九江乘轮船返镇江,不过此次是早晨十点的船次。我站在甲板上看风景,听着汽笛长鸣。江上船只往返,水光闪动帆影,远处红日时现。同样这一江水、一座轮,归途上的我心中所思却和来时殊异。在遇到她以前我不怕死,不惧远行,也不曾忧虑悠长岁月,现在却从未如此真切地思虑起将来。

那时候我们慷慨热情。在巴西饭店我们认识了一对比我们更年轻的夫妇,他们刚好用完了路费,滞留在这里等家里汇钱来。天气相当热,而我们房间后面有一个木制凉台,中有长方条桌和长椅。美棠就常备下水果点心、瓜子花生一类,泡上茶,邀他们上来一起喝茶闲谈,共享旅途乐趣。

有时我们也去大上海和大三元吃饭。店门外灯火通明,霓虹旖旎,点缀着短暂的太平光景。当时的我们都太年轻,看不透这人世间即将发生的剧变。

Economist Aug 30th 2014

What are brands for?

  • Three main components of brand equity: 1) consumers’ awareness; 2) the qualities associated with it; and 3) loyalty; the question is how important how each element is;
  • one analysis shows that awareness matters more than loyalty – brands are “a shorthand for choice”; such “physical and mental availability” are achieved through traditional method of mass marketing, such as television advertising, packaging, and celebrity endorsements, rather through the fashionable targeted sort made possible by the internet;
  • brands have “a reduced role as a quality signal” – now it is easier to find reviews;

Choosing the right pin: Popping property bubbles

  • property valuations look high in many countries: Belgium, Finland, France, and Britain; based on the ratios of prices to rents, or prices to incomes;
  • household debt is also hitting new records, America is now 105% of income after tax, while that of euro-zone is almost 110%;
  • Monetary policies (e.g. in Sweden) turned out to be a bad solution; macroprudential tools, to discipline both banks and borrowers, help to curb the irrational exuberance;
  • A good case study: Netherlands, vs. Belgium;
  • Europe’s property booms tend to be concentrated in capital cities – that makes matters more difficult;

Economist Aug 23rd 2014

Essay: What China Wants

  • Structural reason for China’s subsequent decline: 1) (Mark Elvin) “the high-level equilibrium trap”, cheap labor, efficient administration, easily matched supply and demand, left no incentive to invest in technological improvement; 2) (Kenneth Pomeranz) for Europe, access to cheap commodities, benefits from competition and trade between states;
  • Deep identity crisis after Mao era, when Confucius became the enemy – equivalent of Europeans throwing out any vestiges of Roman law, Greek philosophy or Christian belief;
  • (Lucian Pye) “a civilization pretending to be a state”: imperial view historically; now China has to see itself as a state among others;
  • (Debroah Brautigam) China’s (African) influence / engagement is not imperial but transactional, like what Japanese companies did in the 1980s, “it’s all about perceptions.”
  • Lack of engagement as a rising power – not unusual: it took a world war to draw America onto the world stage;
  • What China wants in East Asia seems akin to a Monroe Doctrine: a decrease in the influence of external powers that would allow it untroubled regional dominance; also America defined an ambitious regional role a hundred years earlier than it actually took on the global role; the difference is – the 19th century America did not have any home-grown challengers, and most of its nations were quite content with the idea of keeping European great powers away;

Unequal before the law? Trust-bursting in China

  • China’s rising antitrust activism, but not even-handed: local firms settled quietly and regulators have been extremely reluctant to take on the biggest state-owned enterprises;
  • one bright spot – progress being made by China’s courts; private antitrust cases handeld by well-trained cadre of judges; (David Evans, U.Chicago) has seen judges in Europe with a weaker grasp of how markets work than those he deals with Chinese cases;
  • final cause of concern – antitrust campaign confuses and conflates differing, and possibly conflicting, policy goals; techno-nationalism, price reductions, etc.

Fixed Rates: The foreign-exchange market

  • FX market is so quiet, multinationals now opt to live with the risk, financial firms pared back, hedge funds left the market;
  • This is largely because the world’s big central banks have replaced yo-yo-ing interest rates with a uniform near-zero level since the financial crisis;
  • Volatility may come back, but probably not the once tidy profit for banks: tiny spreads (enabled by electronic trades); high-frequency traders, etc.
  • The bigger worry: regulators.

Revisiting Ricardo: Why globalization is not reducing inequality within developing countries

  • Ricardo, one of the founding fathers of globalization disciplines: comparative advantages, works well in the first wave of globalization in the 18th century;
  • Eric Mankin, from Harvard University, proposed a “matching theory” to explain the contradictions to Ricardo’s prediction since 1980s – the least skilled cannot match with skilled workers in rich countries; worse, they have lost access to skilled workers in their own economies; the result is growing income inequality;
  • some evidence: typical call-centre employees in India has a bachelor’s degree; Mexico export-oriented firms pay wages 60% higher than non-exporting ones; foreign-owned plants in Indonesia paid white-collar workers 70% more than locally owned firms;

The lessons of Ferguson: Race relations in America

Three things to ponder:

  • The lines between military and local law enforcement have already been blurred;
  • The color matters – it ought to be easier to shift officers between towns, bringing in fresh faces and retain the old hands to be more racially sensitive (background: Ferguson has shifted from 75% white in 1990 to 67% black in 2010);
  • The Policing would be easier and race relations a little more cordial, if America legalized drugs.